The Advent of Precrime Law Enforcement
by Tony Chavira
A wild article in NewScientist about using mathematics to predict the rate of crime in our communities, here's the meat of it:
The equations suggested that there are two kinds of [criminal] hotspot[s]. The first, called "supercritical", arises when small spikes in crime pass a certain threshold and create a local crime wave. The second, "subcritical", happens when a particular factor – the presence of a drug den, for instance – causes a large spike in crime. The equations also indicated that rigorous policing could completely eliminate the subcritical hotspots, but would simply displace the supercritical variety.
Given the fact that researchers have been able to use mobile phone GPS tracking data to predict where we will be at a success rate of something like 93% accuracy, it wouldn't be too surprising that mathmaticians can develop equations that predict what kinds of neighborhoods are at risk. Will this help to catch criminals red-handed? Possibly, but at the very least Southern Californians can see the efforts of our heavily-armed and very well-manned LAPD in action. It may not mean having "precogs," but at least we'll be able to see the patterns forming (although, in some ways this makes me a bit wary about increasing the scope of our citizen surveillance network).
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